The 2018 Kentucky Oaks is coming down to the tale of two fillies versus the rest of the field. Breaking from the outside #14 gate, Monomoy Girl is listed as the slight favorite at 2-1 in Bovada's online racebook, while Midnight Bisou is the close second choice at 9-4.
Trained by Brad Cox, Monomoy Girl has won five of her six lifetime starts, with one runner-up finish, and has done so with some style. She's won her last two races by a combined 8 lengths and defeated four other Oaks runners in the process. Last out she won the (G1) Ashland Stakes by 5 1/2 lengths going wire-to-wire, and previous to that she won the (G2) Rachel Alexandra by 2 1/2 lengths coming from last in the field of seven after hitting the gate at the break.
She already has two wins on the Churchill Downs dirt, and is a formidable favorite here, even breaking from the outside gate.
Midnight Bisou, meanwhile, has won three straight all at Santa Anita race track and all in graded stakes after starting her career with a pair of second-place efforts. Last out she came from way back in the field to take the (G1) Santa Anita Oaks by 3 1/2 lengths, whereas in her previous wins she raced much closer to the early pace.
That kind of versatility should help her in the Kentucky Oaks, but the question for her is more about the level of competition she has been facing, as none of the fillies she beat in her wins made it into the Oaks field. On the other hand, she has won on a wet track already, and with rain in the forecast for Friday at Louisville, that could play to her advantage.
With those two taking all the money, there is lots of value to be had in the rest of the field, and at 18-1, Chocolate Martini is worth a look for the upset. It took her four tries to get her first win, and she started 2018 racing in the claiming ranks, but since being moved to trainer Tom Amoss she has improved by leaps and bounds.
Last out she tried graded-stakes racing for the first time in the (G2) Fair Grounds Oaks, and rallied from near the back coming off the final turn to take over in the stretch and get up for the win by a head at odds of 14-1, beating three others she'll face again on Friday. She also already has a win over a track rated as "good", so she's another one that might get some benefit out of an off track.
Closing fast to finish right behind her in the FG Oaks was Eskimo Kisses (14-1). She also needed four starts to get her first lifetime win, but has been competitive in all her races, running second in the Fair Grounds Oaks as well as in the Ashland, although well-beaten by Monomoy Girl in that one. Three starts back she crushed the field by 11 1/2 lengths in an allowance-level race on a sloppy track, and the combination of rain as well as added distance gives her a decent shot to be a factor on Friday.
The Kentucky Oaks goes Friday, May 4 from Churchill Downs. It's race #11 of 13 on an excellent card that includes five other graded-stakes races. Post time for the Oaks is 6:12 PM Eastern.
Entries w/ Bovada Odds
Kentucky Oaks Picks
Of course, Friday's Kentucky Oaks will be followed on Saturday by the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby, and you can find great odds on both races in Bovada's top-rated online racebook.
Category : Betting Picks
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