Sam Darnold or Josh Allen? Josh Allen or Sam Darnold? If you watched yourself some college football last season, you might put forth the argument that you can't go wrong drafting either of these stud quarterbacks. But you're not Cleveland Browns GM John Dorsey. Your team didn't draft Johnny Manziel, Brandon Weeden, Brady Quinn and Tim Couch, so yes, you can get it wrong. When it comes to QBs, the Browns have redefined how to get it wrong, running 28 of them out under center since 1999.
That's why in their latest reboot, the Browns have to get it right (Yes, we know. You've heard that one before). And that's why they will spend the first overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft on USC's Darnold, the man Bovada tabs as the overwhelming -240 favorite to be the first selection, because he's the safe pick. Darnold has huge potential, and yes, there's the turnover concern (37 in 26 games), but Darnold won't have to step in and play. The Browns acquired Tyrod Taylor from Buffalo to keep the center warm for him until he's ready.
As much as Wyoming's Allen (+160) jumps off the page at you - 6'5", 237 pounds, a 4.79 in the 40 - he's just too much of a roll of the dice for a team that's seen the house take their money so many times at the draft table. When you play at a school that faces mostly second-tier competition, you need to absolutely shred the opposition, dominate them like it ain't a thing. Allen didn't do that, so for all his physical tools, the Browns simply can't go there.
Bovada is offering several prop bets on how the first round of the draft will play out, and here's how we break them down:
The Heisman Trophy winner from Oklahoma is a bit of an uncertainty. He was the most prolific passer in the NCAA, connecting for 41 touchdowns while being picked off a scant five times. But there are issues with Mayfield's size and maturity, though word is he interviewed well at the NFL Combines. Bovada has set the bar at 6.5 on Mayfield, but the Arizona Cardinals, who pick fifth, won't let Mayfield get past them, if he's still there.
BABB Pick: Under 6.5 (-280)
A sensation on the defensive side of the ball, North Carolina State edge rusher Chubb has collected more than 10 sacks and better than 20 tackles for losses in each of the past two seasons. Bovada has set Chubb's over/under at 4.5 The Browns, who own the No. 4 pick, would love to get their hands on Penn State all-purpose performer Saquon Barkley, but he'll be gone to the New York Giants at No. 2. Cleveland will settle for Chubb at four and will be all smiles because of it.
BABB Pick: Under 4.5 (-115)
The 2016 Heisman Trophy winner from Louisville might just be the most dynamic QB in the draft in terms of raw athleticism and ability to impact a game in creative ways. But the NFL is a square peg into a square hole kind of league, and Jackson is a wildcard. A team will need to craft its offense around his unique skill set. Bovada has set the total at 17.5 for Jackson, and we think a team that might be intrigued by what he has to offer could be the Cincinnati Bengals at No. 21.
BABB Pick: Over 17.5 (-155)
Some other prop bets from Bovada that are worth a wager:
The crop of wideouts available this season is deep and intriguing. Alabama's Calvin Ridley (-190) is the betting favorite, but we think despite his impressive credentials, Ridley will be pipped at the post by Maryland's D.J. Moore. The Dallas Cowboys could see Moore bringing to them the X-factor type of skills they lost via the departure of Dez Bryant, and as an added bonus, Moore is also an ace return man.
BABB Pick: D.J. Moore (+210)
We've already indicated the passion that the Giants hold for Penn State running back Saquon Barkley, so you should already be aware of which way to play this wager. It's a good bet that four of the top six picks will be QBs, but not the the top three. And while you're at it, you might want to double down and play Barkley at +130 to go second overall.
BABB Pick: No (-140)
It just wouldn't be a college football-related event without some reference to the Crimson Tide, now would it? Bovada has set the line at 3.5. We like Ridley to go in the first round for sure, as well as DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Da'Ron Payne and LB Rashaan Evans.
BABB Pick: Over (-300)
Category : Betting Picks
Tag : 201 NFL Draft , Baker Mayfield , D.J. Moore , Josh Allen , Lamar Jackson , NFL Football Betting , sam darnold
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