The NFL is back for week 4 of the 2023 season as the Green Bay Packers play host to the Detroit Lions, with both teams looking to take their record to 3-1 for the season so far.
The Packers have opened the season well after a poor campaign last year saw them fail to make it to the playoffs, while the Lions are in the exact same position looking to build upon their shock win over reigning champions Kansas City Chiefs in the opening game.
Both teams will be pushing for a win in week 4, and we'll break down the match up between the two sides while trying to earn you some extra cash with our best free NFL betting picks.
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Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions information
- Thursday, September 28th 2023
- Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
- 20:15 ET kick-off
Season so far
As already mentioned the Lions opened their season with a sensational win over reigning champions Kansas City, turning in a strong fourth quarter to claim a 21-20 win on the road.
They followed that game up with an overtime defeat to the Seattle Seahawks. Detroit hit a touchdown in all four quarters of the game, but a second-half collapse allowed them to give up the win before dropping points in the overtime period to move to 1-1.
Last weekend they got back on the winning trail against the Atlanta Falcons as they prevented the home team from scoring a touchdown in the game, proving their defensive strength and quality heading into this game.
As for Green Bay, they opened the campaign with a huge 38-10 win over the Chicago Bears as they hit 14 points in the third and fourth quarters to earn a huge win.
Their second game saw them take on the Atlanta Falcons and they were cruising into the fourth quarter with a 24-12 lead, before they totally collapsed. Atlanta hit 13 unanswered points in the final 12 minutes of the game to take the win and leave the Packers scratching their heads as to what went wrong.
They then travelled to New Orleans and were dominated for much of the game, finding themselves 17-0 down heading into the fourth quarter. But a huge turnaround in the final quarter saw them hit 18 unanswered points and claim an 18-17 win from the jaws of defeat and have a winning record heading into this game.
NFL Picks: Lions +1.5 @ -110
The Lions are in a tough spot going into this game. A trip to Green Bay is usually challenging enough but likely doing it without your star receiver is even more difficult.
Dan Campbell and his team are built differently though, and looking at the rosters they are better than the Packers. The Packers can be very susceptible to chunk plays on the ground, so keep an eye out for Gibbs and David Montgomery to be really important to this result if they're fit and available.
I also think Amon-Ra St. Brown will be fine, especially considering that he’s been playing through the turf toe the past week and looked good. The key for the Lions will be turning this game into an offensive points-fest and the atmosphere should favor them too.
This is likely to be a tight game based on the way the games have gone this season. Both the Lions and Packers are dealing with injuries to their offensive line, with the Packers’ Christian Watson hasn’t been able to get on the field yet.
Both teams are high-scoring and will feel they have a chance of success, but the Lions should be able to win by a couple of points at least to send the home fans home unhappy.
There won't be many occasions where the Packers are the underdogs at home, but that seems likely on this occasion. The Packers are 36-14-3 at their home stadium versus the Lions all-time and generally play well there. I’m guessing the Lions will be drawing heavily on the experience they went through back in January to knock the Packers out of the playoff race.
NFL Picks: Over 45 total points @ -110
In the Green Bay Packers' three NFL games so far this season the Over 45 line has been hit twice, and both times it was comfortable too. The other occasion was last week's comeback win where it took them three quarters to wake up, and when they did they hit 18 points in 12 minutes.
The Detroit Lions on the other hand smashed that total in week 2 when they combined for 68 points against the Seahawks. The win over Kansas City saw them just miss out, but it should be remembered they were coming up against an elite team and weren't supposed to win that game while week 3 was an elite defensive display rather than offensive showcase.
If both teams go for the win, which they should here, then there should be plenty of points scored and both teams should be hitting 20+ comfortably which should see this bet come in.
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