EPL Week 5 Best Picks

Can the Hornets Sting Man City?

Two of the Premier League’s unbeaten sides face each other this weekend when Watford host Man City at Vicarage Road. Watford have got off to a flying start with two victories and two draws from their opening four fixtures, which gives them eight points, good enough for fourth in the table.

Under the guidance of former Hull City manager Marco Silva, Watford have looked like a different team to the one that flirted with relegation last season. The Hornets have drawn both of their home games this campaign, 3-3 versus Liverpool and 0-0 against Brighton, but won both of their away games 2-0. Silva is going to have his work cut out if he wants to finish this match with at least a share of the spoils because Watord’s recent record against Man City is nothing short of terrible.

The last time these sides met in Watford, City ran out 5-0 winners, in fact Watford have only managed to claim two of a possible 18 points from their fixtures with City. Bovada do not fancy Watford’s chances as much as I do, pricing them at +800 to win and +425 to draw. Those of you who like to bet on the spread can find odds of -115 on Watford winning with a 1.5 goal start.

City find themselves second in the league on goal difference from arch rivals Man United. City were in Champions League action midweek when they rolled over Feyenoord 4-0 in a game they hardly got out of second gear to win. Reports suggest City’s squad came out of that game unscathed so should be ready and raring to go when they face the Hornets this weekend.

After seeing Watford in action in their 3-3 draw with Liverpool, I can see this fixture having lots of goal. Over 2.5 goals is priced at -195 and looks a decent bet, particularly if you can parlay it with a Man City win at -300. Another bet to look at is Gabriel Jesus to score at any time at -125 with the Brazilian priced at +275 to open the scoring. Jesus looks unstoppable and will be relishing taking on a Watford side who seem to struggle against the pace of Liverpool’s attack on the opening day.

Chelsea should outgun the Gunners

The pick of the weekend’s fixtures takes place at Stamford Bridge on Sunday when Chelsea take on Arsenal. These sides drew 1-1 in the Community Shield at the start of the season before Chelsea lost 3-2 at home to Burnley, although they were down to nine men for a period of that match. 

Since that shock defeat, Chelsea have looked solid and have beaten Tottenham Hotspur and Leicester City away and Everton at home. In midweek, Chelsea battered a poor FK Qarabag side 6-0 in the Champions League.

Chelsea are -130 to win this game and that looks a bargain when you consider Arsenal have lost their previous five away games at Chelsea and were crucified 4-0 away to Liverpool the last time they played away, a game that showed the soft underbelly of the Gunners.

The Blues won 3-1 at home to Arsenal last season, but the previous two encounters have ended 2-0 in Chelsea’s favour. This score is +950 and I would not put anyone off betting on this market. 

I don’t fancy Arsenal to trouble Chelsea, partly because of their poor recent record against them and also because Arsenal endured a tough 3-1 win over FC Cologne in midweek in a game that was delayed by more than an hour because of crowd trouble.

Expect Chelsea to do the business in a clinical fashion.

Lukaku vs. Rooney

If you are looking for a banker bet, one that looks like definitely coming in for you, bet on Manchester United to beat Everton at Old Trafford at -310. United are flying high, Everton are not, and this could end up being embarrassing for The Toffees.

United have looked frightening in front of goal and have scored 12 goals in four games, conceding only twice. The Red Devils’ opening fixtures have been games you would expect them to win comfortably, but they have beaten them in style, plus they made easy work of Basel in the Champions League, beating them 3-0.

Everton have had a difficult start to the season, beating Stoke City on the opening day before a draw with Man City. Including their European action this week, Everton have lost their last three games 2-0, 3-0 and 3-0, the sort of form that leads to managers losing their jobs.

It shows how poor Everton are when bookmakers give United a -1.5 spread yet still price them at +100; I can see this being a game with Manchester United hitting the over 2 goals market at -120.

The game also marks the return to Goodison Park of Romelu Lukaku, while Rooney faces his old club for the first time since his switch to Everton. Lukaku already has four league goals this campaign and is -110 to score against his old club, something that he is likely to do because the Everton defense is woeful.

Category : Betting Picks

Tag : Arsenal , Chelsea , everton , Manchester City , manchester united , Premier League betting , Watford

More articles...