Looking to make his third trip to the Classic, where he finished third in 2016, Keen Ice goes into the Gold Cup as the 9-5 morning line favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher.
The third-place finisher in the 2015 Belmont Stakes, Keen Ice scored one of the biggest upsets in recent years when he beat Arrogate in the 2015 Travers Stakes, his last win until this past July when he beat the highly regarded Shaman Ghost in the (G2) Suburban Stakes at Belmont.
Last out he finished second in the (G1) Whitney Stakes where he was no match for Gun Runner, who is expected to be one of the favorites for the Classic. Now he faces an easier field, and this late-running colt is a serious threat for the win.
After Keen Ice, things get interesting with several question marks among the other contenders. He'll want a fast pace to close into, and it's likely the early speed in the race will involve Pavel (5-2).
A lightly raced three-year-old for trainer Doug O'Neill, Pavel has two wins in three lifetime starts, getting a graded-stakes victory last out in the (G3) Smarty Jones winning by six lengths over a small but talented field. The concern for him is the distance, as that race was at 1 1/16 miles, and he faded badly when trying 1 1/8 miles two starts back in the (G2) Jim Dandy.
If you like Keen Ice on top, you'll be looking for a bit of a price to top up the exactas and trifectas, and Rally Cry (6-1) has a legitimate shot at getting on the ticket.
The second of three Pletcher trainees in the race, he's only been out of the money twice in 11 lifetime starts and tracked fairly quick fractions before taking over and winning going away two starts back in taking the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga Race Course.
With a fast pace to run at, it's likely Good Samaritan (8-1) will be following Keen Ice in trying to close on the leaders late. He got the benefit of that set up two starts back when he rallied in the stretch to get by both KD winner Always Dreaming and Preakness winner Cloud Computing. Perhaps a notch below the best here, he's a good play in the bottom of the bottom of the exotics.
The Jockey Club Gold Cup goes Saturday, October 7 from Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. Scheduled post time is 5:23 PM, and it's the third of three graded-stakes on the day that includes the (G1) Champagne Stakes. Bet the Gold Cup or the full day's card through the Today's Tracks link at all top-rated racebooks.
Category : Betting Picks
Tag : Breeders Cup , Horse Racing
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