The NFL is back for Week 11 of the regular season where two of the better-performing teams will go head-to-head as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to the Buffalo Bills at the Bills Stadium.
The Chiefs have been have had a picture-perfect start to their pursuit of a third consecutive Super Bowl title by going 9-0 so far, while the Bills are looking to get back to winning ways after going 8-2 after ten games.
We’ll take a look at the game between these two sides and provide you with our best free NFL betting picks to try and earn you some extra cash while you enjoy the action on the field.
Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs information
- Sunday, 17th November 2024
- Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
- 16:25 ET kick-off
- Live on CBS
Buffalo Bills season so far
The Bills have had a fantastic campaign so far, and it all started with a lovely 3-0 run to open up the season. Buffalo took a 34-28 win in week 1 over the Arizona Cardinals, before a strong 31-10 win over Miami Dolphins in week 2 and a dominant 47-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 3.
Things took a turn for the worse after that however as the team fell to back-to-back defeats, losing 35-10 against the Baltimore Ravens and following that up with a 23-20 loss to the Houston Texans.
Since then the team have gone on a tear though, with five consecutive wins to really prove their credentials as one of the best and most complete teams in the NFL.
A 23-20 win over the New York Jets got them back to winning ways, before a dominant 34-10 win over the Tennessee Titans came next. A 31-10 win over the Seattle Seahawks came next with a strong performance before back-to-back victories over the Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts in their last two outings.
Kansas City Chiefs season so far
The reigning champions opened up their season with a big clash against the Baltimore Ravens in week 1 and came away with a vital victory, holding off a late fightback to claim a 27-20 win.
Week 2 wasn’t quite as straightforward as they had to rely on the genius of Patrick Mahomes once again to bail them out late on against the Cincinnati Bengals, coming from behind in the fourth quarter to claim a tight 26-25 win thanks to a last-second field goal from Harrison Butker.
In week 3 it was another routine win over the Atlanta Falcons as they won 22-17, with their dominant defense on show, before a dominant performance against the Los Angeles Chargers in week 4 saw them only concede points in the first quarter during a 17-10 win.
They followed that up against the New Orleans Saints in week 5 and earned a dominant 26-13 victory, before a bye in week 6. They returned to action in week 7 against the San Francisco 49ers and claimed a routine 28-18 win, before facing off with the Las Vegas Raiders where Xavier Worthy scored the winning touchdown in a fantastic 27-20 victory on the road.
They then defeaetd the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a highly entertaining game thanks to a fouth-quarter comeback to earn the 30-24 win in overtime. Last time out the Chiefs claimed a 16-14 win over the Denver Broncos, but only because the special team blocked a last second field goal attempt in what was a disappointing performance.
NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs to win @ +115
It seems ridiculous that the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions with a 9-0 regular season record en route to a three-peat could be underdogs in a game, but that's where we find ourselves currently.
While the team have had a couple of disappointing performances in recent weeks, they've continued to win and find a way, and it seems impossible they wouldn't be able to do it again here.
We’ve seen Patrick Mahomes and the passing offense start to improve recently, especially with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins at receiver. Buffalo’s defense has been fairly strong, but they're more than beatable and the Chiefs are probably best-placed to beat them.
The Bills have given up 360 or more yards in three of those past five wins, including 361 yards to the Colts and 373 to the Dolphins in the two most recent outings. Kansas City’s defense is much stronger, with Steve Spagnuolo’s stop unit sitting No. 4 in Defensive DVOA.
It's also impossible to ignore Mahomes' incredible record as an underdog since he became the starting quarterback. Since 2018, Kansas City is 12-5 SU and 13-3-1 ATS (79%) when getting points, including 9-3-1 ATS as a regular season dog. At this price, you simply have to back them.
Check out our review for BetOnline sports betting here.
NFL Picks: Over 45.5 total match points @ -110
These two teams have been among the top scorers in the league this season, but defensively they have both been strong too which makes this a tricky market to bet on.
However, the points total seems relatively low considering the quality in both sides and the way their seasons have gone so far.
The magic 46-point mark has been hit or surpassed in four of 10 Bills games so far this season, while the total has hit in five of nine games for the Chiefs. The Bills are also averaging 29 points scored per game, while Kansas have averaged a total of 24.3 points per game.
Realistically both teams should be able to hit the 20-point mark, so the chances of the over landing are strong. Take the -110 and enjoy the action.
Check out our review for Bovada sports betting here.
