Toronto Maple Leafs favorites to beat Tampa Bay Lightning in playoffs

Toronto Maple Leafs favorites to beat Tampa Bay Lightning in playoffs

It's been an amazing NHL season so far, and now we're entering the business end as the playoffs begin on Monday April 17th, 2023.

The 16 best performing teams in the league will compete over the coming months in best-of-seven game series' for an opportunity to compete for the Stanley Cup and a place in history. Two of those teams this time around are Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs, who met at this stage of last season's playoffs too.

We'll take a look at the two teams and their chances of progression, before providing you with our best free NHL picks to try and earn you some extra cash before you watch some excellent ice hockey action.

NHL PlayoffsBetOnlineBetUSMyBookie
Tampa Bay Lightning+139+139+139
Toronto Maple Leafs-159-159-159

Learn more about how to bet on the NHL playoffs here.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs information

  • Game 1: TBC in Toronto
  • Game 2: TBC in Toronto
  • Game 3: TBC in Tampa Bay
  • Game 4: TBC in Tampa Bay
  • Game 5*: TBC in Toronto
  • Game 6*: TBC in Tampa Bay
  • Game 7*: TBC in Toronto

*If needed

Tampa Bay Lightning season so far

It's been a brilliant NHL season for the Lightning, as they claimed a winning record in every month of the season barring April to earn a playoff place once again from the Atlantic Division.

They started back in October with a poor run, opening up 1-3 after defeats to the New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers. They bounced back though with four wins in their next five games, defeating the Florida Panthers, New York Islanders, Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks.

November was sensational as they went 8-3-1, including a run of six wins in seven games. They were held at home by the Carolina Hurricanes however and forced into overtime, where they lost the shootout. December was even better, going 10-3 and opening the month with a run of seven wins in eight games - their only defeat coming to the Detroit Red Wings. They also played the Maple Leafs twice that month, earning an overtime win at home but suffering a 4-1 loss on the road two weeks later.

January saw their first five-game winning streak of the season as they went 9-4 for the month, before a tough February saw them go 5-3-3 including a run of just two wins in seven. March was awful too, going 7-7-2 including four defeats in a row towards the end of the month.

With their NHL playoff spot already secured April saw them go 1-3 at the time of writing, losing their last three games in a row including in a preview of the playoff series when they were beaten 4-3 in the penultimate game by Toronto.

Tampa Bay Lightning win series v Toronto Maple Leafs
+139
BetOnline

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Toronto Maple Leafs season so far

If you thought that the Lightning had a great season, then Toronto's is even better as they claimed the number two seed ahead of them in the division, behind only the Boston Bruins with a record of 49-21-11.

While Tampa had a winning record in every month bar the final one, Toronto had a winning record in every month bar the opening one back in October where they went 4-4-2, including being winless in their final four against the Vegas Golden Knights, San Jose Sharks, Los Angeles Kings and Anaheim Ducks.

They really found their rhythm in November though going 11-1-3, losing only to the Pittsburgh Penguins and winning their final five in a row against the New Jersey Devils, Minnesota Wild, Penguins, Red Wings and Sharks. That continued into December as they went 8-3-1, with a four-game winning streak and three-game winning streak interrupted by consecutive losses to the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals.

January was their second most fruitful month in terms of points as they picked up 18 with an 8-4-2 record, before a pretty underwhelming February saw them go 6-3 with a three game winning streak to finish the month.

March saw them go 7-5-2 and win consecutive games just twice throughout, but they secured their NHL playoff berth in April with a 5-1-1 record at the time of writing including their win over their opponents in this series on the road.

NHL picks: Toronto Maple Leafs win Game 1 and the series

Both offenses average about 3.4 goals per game this season, but the advantage lies with The Maple Leafs as their goaltending has been better statistically than that of the Lightning. They have only allowed 2.68 goals per game compared to Tampa Bay's 3.1 goals per game, and while the debate rages on about who is better between Ilya Samsonov/Matt Murray and Andrei Vasilevskiy the numbers don't lie.

On special teams the two sides are nearly identical, with both having a 25% success rate on the power play an around an 80% rate on the penalty kill.

Is this Tampa Bay team capable of winning in the first round? Absolutely, no doubt about it. Will they? I can't see it.

The Maple Leafs have a chip on their shoulder as they look to prove they can go deep into the playoffs this season and after the Lightning got the win in Game 7 last year, expect Toronto to start fast with a win in Game 1 and then go on to win the series too.

Toronto Maple Leafs win Game 1 and series v Tampa Bay Lightning
+150
BetUS

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