The Super Bowl began as a haven for favorites. The smart money was on the moneyline choice. Out of the first 14 Super Bowl games, the favorite won 12 of them, including an impressive 10 in a row from Super Bowls V through XIV. The average margin of victory for favorites during those first 14 Super Bowls was 12.9 points per game.
Lately, though, favorites haven't proven to be the favored sons in Super Bowl play. When the New England Patriots worked overtime to defeat the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in Super Bowl LI, it marked the first occasion that a moneyline favorite lifted the Lombardi Trophy since the Green Bay Packers beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. And it wasn't an easily-earned victory for the moneyline selection. The Patriots staged a furious rally from a 28-3 deficit to claim their title and save the day for those who'd bet the chalk.
The Patriots were the moneyline pick in five of their seven Super Bowl apperances between 2001-16 and were an ordinary 3-2 in those games. But they've won twice against the moneyline choice in that span, beating the Seattle Seahawks 28-24 in Super Bowl XLIX and stopping the St. Louis Rams 20-17 in Super Bowl XXXVI on Adam Vinatieri's last-second field goal in the game that launched New England's current dynasty.
The sportsbooks took their biggest Super Bowl bath at the hands of the Patriots, paying out an esitmated $2.6 million when the 18-0 favored Pats dropped a 17-14 decision to Eli Manning and the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII. At +475 in the moneyline, the win by the Giants paid out $475 for every $100 wagered in moneyline bets on them.
The five straight wins by the moneyline underdog from Super Bowls XLVI-L are a record for the big game. In fact, prior to that, the moneyline underdog had never won the Super Bowl more than two games in a row, and that had only happened twice - in Super Bowls III and IV and Super Bowls XXXVII and XXXVIII. In Super Bowl III, those who rolled the dice with the New York Jets cashed in at +1800, while in Super Bowl IV, Kansas City paid off those who backed them to the tune of +1200.
Perhaps looking toward that recent trend of moneyline favorites crashing, some big-time bettors are playing some heavy numbers on the Eagles, listed as the +155 moneyline underdogs by Bovada.
William Hill reported a $1 million moneyline wager on the Eagles. At odds of +155, a $1 million bet on the moneyline would produce a return of $1.55 million should the Eagles defeat the Patriots on Super Bowl Sunday. That would pay off a few bills.
William Hill officials noted that 85 percent of the money and 86 percent of the bets they've taken on the Super Bowl moneyline were wagered on the Eagles. Even though back-up QB Nick Foles is at the helm in place of the injured Carson Wentz, there was also a multi-million dollar moneyline bet placed on the Eagles at another sportsbook, and two more sportsbooks reported moneyline wagers on Philly in the $600,000-$700,000 six-figure range.
Is that the smart money play? Historically, backing the Eagles in the Super Bowl in terms of the moneyline has not proven to be a wise investment in the past. The Eagles were favored in Super Bowl XV against the Oakland Raiders, but turned in a dismal performance and were soundly thrashed by a 27-10 final scoreline. When the Eagles and Patriots met in Super Bowl XXXIX, the Eagles beat the pointspread of New England minus-seven in a 24-21 loss, but the moneyline winnings went to those who backed Tom Brady and the Patriots.
BABB Pick: New England Patriots (-175)Category : Betting Picks
Tag : adam vinatieri , carson wentz , eli manning , nick foles , Super Bowl LII , tom brady
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