The UFC returns to Las Vegas for their first ever event at the Sphere as Riyadh Season takes over MMA for UFC 306: Noche, headlined by a bantamweight championship fight between reigning champion Sean O'Malley and number one contender Merab Dvalishvili.
An event set to celebrate Mexican Independence weekend, these two rivals will settle a score that has seen them go back and forth for almost a year in the main event, but they will be supported by a strong undercard including a women's flyweight championship fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko, as well as the likes of Raul Rosas Jr, Ignacio Bahamondes, Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes.
We'll take a look at the main event and break down each fighter to provide you with our best free UFC betting picks, and try to earn you some extra cash while you take in the action in the cage.
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UFC 306 information
- Saturday, September 14th 2024
- Sphere, Paradise, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Bantamweight Championship (135 pounds)
- 5 x 5 minute rounds
- Main card starts at 22:00 ET
Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili
The two best fighters in the 135-pound division will finally get to go toe to toe in the octagon as O'Malley looks to defend his undisputed championship for the second time, against first-time challenger Merab, and extend his unbeaten run to eight. "Suga" comes into this fight with an 18-1 (1 NC) professional record, including 12 knockouts.
O'Malley earned himself a title shot with a razor-close split decision win over Petr Yan back at UFC 280, setting up a huge fight against then-champion Aljamain Sterling. Several months before their fight the two fighters would square off in the octagon to promote the bout, only for Sterling's teammate Merab to also be present and cause a scene when he stole O'Malley's jacket, which sparked this feud.
Despite suffering a back injury in training weeks before the fight, O'Malley was able to land a stunning right-hand to knock out the FunkMaster, earning a second-round stoppage and winning the belt, and in his most recent fight he dominated another rival in Marlon Vera, who so far is the only man to beat him after he suffered a freak leg injury during the fight, to defend the belt successfully.
Dvalishvili will finally get his chance at gold, having previously turned down title fights as he didn't want to fight his long-time friend and teammate Sterling while he was champion, much to Dana White's disgust.
The Georgian fighter is on a sensational ten-fight win streak coming into this fight, giving him a 17-4 professional record including just four coming inside the distance.
With a heavy wrestling style, Merab really caught the eye with a crazy comeback win over Marlon Moraes back in 2021 as he bounced back after nearly being finished in the first-round to completely dominate the Brazilian and earn a second-round stoppage via ground and pound.
Up next came a huge fight against former featherweight champion and UFC Hall of Famer Jose Aldo, who he dominated with his wrestling for three rounds to claim a unanimous decision victory. He then fought another former champion in Petr Yan in a five-round main event, and once again his wrestling proved unstoppable en route to a unanimous decision win. Last time out he fought former two-weight world champion Henry Cejudo, and out-wrestled the Olympic champion to set up this title shot.
Route to victory
This is the pure definition of a clash of styles as one of the best strikers in the company takes on one of the most relentless wrestlers we've ever seen.
If the fight stays on the fight, O'Malley will remain the champion. His punch speed, counters, footwork and ability to cut angles while landing high-quality shots is just something that Merab won't be able to cope with over 25 minutes and he has shown that he can be hit and hurt in the past.
However, the champion will have to find a way to battle with "The Machine" and his style of constantly shooting for takedowns and chaining together wrestling sequences without ever seemingly getting tired. That may sound like a cliche, but he genuinely just never looks even the slightest bit fatigued and as the fight goes on it will suit him more and more.
For the challenger to be successful he will need to implement and execute his usual style, but he must find a way to keep O'Malley on the mat and control the positions on the ground rather than constantly allowing him back to his feet.
Check out our review for BetOnline sports betting here.
UFC Picks: O'Malley to retain
Merab is a totally different kettle of fish to anything that "Suga" has ever come up against before, but he isn't unbeatable and there isn't a harder hitter in the division to slow him down than the champ.
O'Malley will no doubt have some concerns about the wrestling of the challenger, but he managed to stuff several takedown attempts from Merab's teammate and a top wrestler in Sterling to win the title, and will be confident of being able to do the same again. He's also a high-level black belt so won't be out of his element on the ground, but he will want the fight to stay on the feet.
Ultimately this is all about how effectively he can strike when he is fatigued. He will get taken down, probably several times, but he will also be able to get back to his feet multiple times per round. If he can string together combinations and land flush, we could knock Dvalishvili out cold. His experience and speed is a big factor, and I like the odds for us to hear "and still" at the end of the night.
Check out our review for Bovada sports betting here.
