Super Bowl Over Under Betting Line

Super Bowl 2017 over under bets

By Jack Taylor

 

Super Bowl 51 is not only the highest over/under in the championship game's 51-year history, its 58.5-point total completely bucks recent trends. Look at the last five Super Bowl point totals: 43, 47.5, 47.5, 48, and 53 (three of the four went over, by the way). Bookies are under the impression the scoring in this game will be unprecedented, and after crunching the numbers, there's merit to that belief.

Both the Falcons and Patriots can score at will. Atlanta led the league in scoring, putting up 33.8 points per game. That average ranks eighth highest in NFL history. Meanwhile, the Patriots don't lag far behind with 27.6 points per game — and let's not forget that's with Tom Brady suspended the first four games of the year.

But what's even more impressive is both team's have hit a new gear in the playoffs. The Falcons put up 36 points against a vaunted Seattle defense, followed by 44 against the Packers — a 40-point average. The Patriots averaged 35 points in their playoff wins after scoring 34 against the Texans and 36 against the Steelers. 

That's just not normal. After a 16-game regular season, players are suppose to be more worn out. Injuries should have thinned their starting lineups by now.

Defenses are suppose to rise to the occasion in the postseason. Instead, both offensive units are peaking at the perfect time. 

It helps that the two best quarterbacks in the league right now are leading both attacks. Matt Ryan is on the verge of being named regular season MVP and Brady is going for a league-record fifth Super Bowl and best player of all time bragging rights.

Aside from the signal callers, both teams have a running back that eclipsed 1,000 yards in rushing. For Atlanta, Julio Jones is the most dangerous pass catcher in all of the NFL, while the Patriots have a slew of speedy receivers to wear you down. 

That's enough gushing about the offense, though. Believe it or not, both teams do have a defense despite their offensive prowess.

Atlanta's unit has not been particularly good for most of this season. The Falcons gave up the eighth most yards in the league, 371.2 yards per game. It was their secondary that was especially vulnerable, giving up the fifth most passing yards in the league (266.7 per game). 

However, the playoffs has been a different story. Atlanta completely suffocated two of the NFL's top quarterbacks, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers.

Here's the two's combined stat line against the Falcons — 44-of-75 completions (59%), 512 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Seahawks and Packers barely managed 20 and 21 points, respectively. Akin to their offense, Atlanta's defense is playing at their best right now.

On the other hand, New England's defense has been consistently great all year long. The unit was the most stingy in the league, allowing just 15.6 points per game — an entire 2.2 points ahead of the next best ranked defense. 

Take a look at their defensive lineup and few names pop out. Only two defensive players earned Pro Bowl honors. But with the great Bill Belichick at the helm, this is one of the best New England defenses in his tenure.

Let's dig a little deeper into history. This game will pit the NFL's top-ranked offense vs. the league's best defense for the sixth time in Super Bowl history. Let's examine how those games fared against the over/under.

In a lopsided result, four of the five games hit the over. Most recently, the Seahawks-Broncos matchup from three seasons ago totaled 51 points — 3.5 points ahead of the projected over/under. A closer look reveals that the four games that went over completely smashed the projection by an average of 12.5 points. Historically, the defensive team scores a lot more than expected. Considering the defensive team in this case has Brady at quarterback, I like the Patriots chances even more. 

And finally, the game is being played indoors, which is conducive to high-scoring affairs. 

All signs point toward an over. Between game matchups and history, the proof is in the pudding. Super Bowl 51 will eclipse a record-high 58.5-point total.

Pick the Over 

Category : Betting Picks

Tag : betting picks , free , over/under , point total , Super Bowl

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