The 2017 Kentucky Oaks was a crazy race. In the rain on a sloppy track, jockeys Flavian Prat on favored Paradise Woods and Paco Lopez on 6-1 Miss Sky Warrior came flying out of the gate, and for the first half of the 1 1/8 mile race, neither wanted to give an inch as they battled on the lead. As a result, they blazed through an opening 1/4 mile in 22.78 seconds, and hit the half-mile point in 46.24. Predictably, they were cooked by the time they hit the stretch and faded badly, opening the door for Able Tasman to come from way back and get the win.
These three long shots in 2018 will be hoping for a similar result this year, with current future bet odds from Bovada.
A Kentucky-bred filly who has done all of her racing at Meydan Race Course in Dubai, Rayya sports a record of two wins and three runner-up finishes in five lifetime starts. Anyone taking a casual glance at her latest effort in the UAE Derby would note that she finished in second, 18 1/2 lengths behind the winner. But it should also be noted that winner was Mendelssohn, who will be a top contender in the Kentucky Derby. She was the only filly in the field of eight other males, and she finished three lengths ahead of third-place runner Reride, who is a stakes winner in the US.
Rayya is a front-running filly that typically breaks very well from the gate, with a stride that eats up ground. She has a good cruising speed, and can accelerate well once they hit the stretch. Perhaps her biggest advantage is the fact her last two races were all beyond the Kentucky Oaks 1 1/8 mile distance, so she'll have no problem with the distance that could be trouble for several others.
How she'll handle the travel and Churchill Downs dirt is the big question, but she has been transferred to the barn of three-time Oaks winning trainer Bob Baffert, so no doubt she'll be ready to run.
After going 0-3 in 2017, Chocolate Martini grabbed her maiden win way down in the $15,000 claiming ranks at Fair Grounds Race Course in early January. Next out she again ran at the claiming level, where she was in fact claimed for $25,000 and turned over to veteran trainer Tom Amoss. Since then she's been a different horse, going on to win an allowance-level race by a neck at odds of 27-1, and then stepping way up to win the (G2) Fair Grounds Oaks by a head over Eskimo Kisses, Wonder Gadot and Classy Act, all of whom could be in the Kentucky Oaks field.
She has shown some versatility in that she has won from running just off the pace, and also rallying from behind. Two of her three recent wins have come at just over one mile, and the Fair Grounds Oaks was at 1 1/16 miles, so by all indications she can get the distance. Her overall speed figures put her just behind the top two, but she has has shown incredible improvement in that regard in her last two starts.
An Ontario-bred for trainer Mark Casse, Wonder Gadot is a half-brother to Kentucky Derby contender Bolt d'Oro. Considered one of the top Oaks contenders last fall, she was a graded-stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles at Woodbine, and closed out the year with a win in the 1 1/8 mile (G2) Damoiselle Stakes at Aqueduct in New York.
She's been competitive in all of her 2018 starts but she's been having trouble getting wins, running second or third in four straight, the last three in graded-stakes. She was third behind Chocolate Martini in the Fair Grounds Oaks, and second last out in the (G3) Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park, beaten by a nose after racing four wide off the final turn.
She's going to need to find a bit more speed if she wants to score the upset here, but her overall record against fairly tough competition and a win at the distance suggests she is at least a logical play in exactas and trifectas.
With a field of 14, the Kentucky Oaks presents a bit easier handicapping task than the Derby with a field of 20. With the top-two contenders in the field expected to take the bulk of the money, there will be lots of value to be had for anyone who decides to try and beat them, whether you bet Bovada's future bet odds today, or wait until race day, Friday, May 4.
Category : Betting Picks
Tag : Bovada , Horse Racing
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