There are a variety of sports betting systems that players can learn in order to give them a better perspective of the odds, even occasionally picking up a small advantage if a sportsbook whiffs on a moneyline. Some wagering systems focus on individual trends within a sport while other are all about the numbers. The Poisson distribution betting system focuses on the latter, using statistics to numerically determine probability based on past performance.
Poisson Distribution Betting System Review
In order to calculate Poisson distribution numbers, you need to have a decent amount of data from past performances of the two teams that you’re comparing, as well as the average performance of the entire league as a whole. This may be calculated in any sport that keeps tracks of these numbers.
Poisson distribution calculations begin by dividing the team’s average points or goals by the average of the league as a whole. For example, if an NBA team averages 97 points a game on the road and the league average is 99 points, the number derived is 0.979 – put simply, about 2.1 percent less than the league road average. This calculation is repeated for both offensive and defensive stats for the two teams according to whether they’re on the road or at home.
The next step is calculating the expected amount of points or goals scored by each team in the game.
The home team’s expected output is calculated by multiplying their home offensive percentage by the away team’s defensive percentage, before multiplying by the league average for home teams.
If a home team has an offensive average of 0.981 and the away team has a defensive average of 1.01, and the league average points scored at home is 103, then the home team is expected to score 102.05 points in the game.
After calculating this number for the home team, do the same for the away team. Dividing the higher number by the lower number provides the moneyline for the favorite.
So if the away team is expected to score 115.55 points and the home team 102.05 points, the number calculated would be 1.132, which translates to a moneyline of -113 for the road team.
In addition to getting a rough idea of a moneyline, Poisson distribution is also a great way to calculate the number of expected goals or points in a game.
Is It A Good System To Follow?
The Poisson distribution betting system is a solid numerical betting tool for those who wish to get into overall trends while sourcing odds that offer a better return on investment.
It's also a great method to see which side of the over/under to place your bet. However, this betting system doesn't take into account any other factors other than past performance, ignoring significant issues such as player injuries or weather conditions, limiting its overall precision in predicting games.